PSOJ

The tragic assassination of JUTC Chairman Douglas Chambers is yet another name to add to the 700+ homicide victims so far this year. This brutal murder must mark the decisive moment for this nation when every citizen regardless of their background, politics or religion will take a stand and say no to the monsters of murder and corruption. The alternative is to allow our country to sink further into the abyss of crime and disorder.  (As this is written, in comes news that Shalmon Scott, chairman of JUTC’s affiliated company Montego Bay Metro Service, has been shot five times but is thankfully alive.)

In 1989 the Jamaican murder count was 429. It hit 600 in 1992 to a great outcry. An even louder ‘The country is falling apart!’ uproar went up in 1996, when we passed the 1980 ‘civil war’ mark of 800. There were more anguished cries of alarm in 1997 when we topped 1,000. The choruses of doom continued as we went onward and upward to 1,200, 1,400, 1600.

The Government of the day talked tough, but did nothing of consequence to address the issues. The present one is doing the same today as we head towards 1,800.

Why have all our Prime Ministers and Security Ministers over the past two decades been so unwilling to take the necessary measures to cut crime? Those of us on the outside can only speculate.  But many Jamaicans are convinced that many criminals have political connections, and putting them behind bars would open up skeleton closets on both sides of the fence.  Hence the weak Governmental resolve to address the issues.

Up to 1971, our homicide rate was, overall, lower than that of the USA’s. This graph comparing US and Jamaican murder levels shows how the nation’s safety has been sacrificed on the altar of political expediency. Our politicians should hang their heads in shame.

A Government unconditionally committed to cutting crime would implement what has worked elsewhere. The US, for instance, reduced murders by a half between 1990 and 2000. Some attributed this to a strong economy, changing demographics, zero tolerance and broken window policies, ‘innovative’ New York style policing, gun control laws, and increased capital punishment.

But in the “Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s” chapter of ‘Freakonomics’, Steven D. Levitt argued that none of these had much effect. What had a huge impact was increased incarceration. Levitt's 1996 paper estimated that a one person increase in the prison population is associated with a decrease of 15 Index I crimes per year. (Index I crimes include homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, theft, car theft, and arson.)

This chart tells the story – more criminals behind bars, fewer innocent citizens murdered.

What put criminals behind bars was tougher legislation. This included plea bargaining, mandatory sentencing, and ‘three strikes’ laws – a third conviction meaning a life sentence. If it worked in America, why wouldn’t it work in Jamaica?

Jamaica should not adopt such extreme measures as has been done in the US to give life sentences for repeat shoplifting. We should just focus on dangerous crimes. Department of Correction figures show that only 22% of those imprisoned in 2007 were repeat offenders. This recidivism rate is much lower than the roughly 66% in places like the US, UK and the Bahamas. Yet these countries have far lower murder rates than we do, which suggests that Jamaica’s problem has more to do with issues of violence than crime. In Jamaica, unlike other jurisdictions, verbal arguments or fisticuffs too often result in gunshot or stabbing deaths.

The roots of this propensity for violence include inadequate education and dysfunctional parenting. As David Popenoe shows in ‘Life Without Father’, fatherlessness and poor educational attainment and crime are highly correlated. It’s not surprising perhaps that a country with 85% of babies born out of wedlock also has a serious male illiteracy problem and the world’s highest murder rate.

Re-establishing family values, reforming education, and renewing inner city communities must be paramount long term issues. But reforms in these areas will take a decade or more to generate any significant impact. Nor can social welfare programmes work if vicious criminals are numerically strong enough to destroy them. As the Grants Pen experiment showed, it’s useless to plant before weeding. So first we have to minimize the negative consequences of the current situation.

This means using both carrot and stick approaches. Peace management and dispute resolution initiatives should be implemented in every high crime community. At the same time we must crackdown on violent offenders, including giving mandatory sentences for Index I crimes and unlawful firearm possession, plus life imprisonment for repeat dangerous offences. All evidence suggests that such a two pronged approach would make Jamaica significantly safer.

At the same time, as Jamaicans for Justice rightly argues, our police force and judicial system need to be cleaned up. The recent recommendations of the JCF’s strategic review and the report of the Justice Reform Task Force must be implemented.

Word on the street suggests that Jamaicans overwhelmingly favour a ‘Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’ strategy. JLP Senator Dennis Meadows is the first politician to publicly call for ‘three strikes’ laws. Hopefully our other legislators are listening, including PM Bruce Golding and Security Minister Trevor MacMillan.

This chart shows that Jamaica imprisons far fewer people than its situation warrants.

Doubling our prison population would put us roughly on par with Trinidad and Barbados in per capita incarceration, and leave us well behind the US. (Sources : World Prison Population List 7th edition; Wikipedia List of Countries by Homicide Rate)

Yet, despite our rising crime rate, fewer persons were incarcerated in 2007 than in 2006, and despite our 1,000 plus annual homicide count, only about 50 persons on average are imprisoned for murder each year.

This confirms what most Jamaicans feel that our dysfunctional judicial system is failing us and letting too many criminals roam free. One obvious cause is fear. Many prosecutions fail because witnesses are too scared to come forward.

One proven method of improving witness safety is to record their testimony on video, and allow this to be used in evidence, with a live video link for cross examination purposes.

Another is the decisive but silent witness DNA. The Fingerprint Act needs to be amended so that not only fingerprints and photographs but also DNA samples (mouth swab) can be taken from all persons arrested or charged with a criminal offence. This is already being done in the UK. Properly used DNA helps free the innocent, while enhancing law enforcement’s capability to identify suspects for unsolved crimes, leading to an increase in convictions.

We also need gun and sex crimes registries. An April 17th 2008 article in The Economist, “Inner-city crime: Back from the brink”, reported that murder fell sharply in Baltimore US when those convicted of gun crimes had to register their place of abode and report regularly to the police when released from jail. Again, why not here?

If such laws are good enough for Britain and America, they are good enough for Jamaica, especially considering our murder rate is over 10 and 20 times theirs respectively. What human right is more fundamental than the right to life?

‘How can we afford to do all this?‘. The proper question is ‘How can we not?’. The 2007 World Bank study - “Crime, Violence, and Development: Trends, Costs, and Policy Options in the Caribbean” - estimated that if Jamaican homicide rates fell to Costa Rican levels, our annual GDP growth rate would increase by 5.4%.  If they cut violent crime sharply as they have elsewhere, tougher laws, more prisons, video witness links, DNA databases and gun registries will pay for themselves many times over.

Let’s hope Douglas Chambers has not died in vain. Let’s hope his murder - rightly called an attack on the state - will spur this administration into finally demonstrating the political will promised in the 2006 “Road Map to a Safe and Secure Jamaica”.

If not, regrettably, Jamaicans may well look forward to the following headline in a few years :‘Murders pass the 2,000 mark!’ 

Contributed: PSOJ Standing Committee on National Security
July 3, 2008